Avoid discontinuing your SIPs. Persist for at least 7-10 years.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation target for the current financial year to 5.7 per cent on the back of rising global prices amidst the ongoing geo-political tensions, even as it expected the prices of cereals and pulses to soften on prospects of good winter crop harvest. "Global food prices along with metal prices have hardened significantly. "Economy is grappling with a sharp rise in inflation... Inflation is now projected at 5.7 per cent in 2022-23 with Q1 at 6.3 per cent; Q2 at 5 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent and Q4 at 5.1 per cent," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while unveiling the first monetary policy review for the current fiscal year.
The bank will give 3.25 per cent interest on savings bank deposits with a balance exceeding Rs 100,000. At present, the interest rate is 3.5 per cent.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
Flush with liquidity, banks are eager to lend. And, therein lies the problem, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the second consecutive month in January at 12.96 per cent, even though food prices hardened, the government said on Monday. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the tenth consecutive month beginning April 2021. Inflation in December 2021 was 13.56 per cent, while in January 2021, it was 2.51 per cent.
The Indian services sector activity fell to a six-month low in September, as new business inflows rose at the slowest rates since March, amid inflationary pressures and competitive conditions, a monthly survey said. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 54.3 in September, from 57.2 in August, highlighting the weakest rate of expansion since March. For the fourteenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Demonetisation of the high value currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 did not have any discernible impact on currency in circulation (CIC) in the country, which has soared by almost 83 per cent since its announcement on November 8, 2016. The Supreme Court on Monday upheld the decision of the government on demonetisation. On November 8, 2016 Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced demonetisation of old Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 banknotes and one of the key objectives of the unprecedented decision was to promote digital payments and curb black money flows.
India's residential market is expected to sustain demand momentum despite rise in mortgage and property rates as sales this year across the top 7 cities are likely to breach pre-pandemic level of 2.62 lakh units, industry players said. After braving four back-to-back disruptions in form of demonetisation, RERA, GST and COVID-19 in the last 6 years, industry experts feel the housing market is going through a lot of structural changes and is now at the start of a long-term upcycle. Homebuyers body FPCE gives credit to the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) under the Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Act, 2016 for this improved buying sentiment.
Benchmark indices failed to hold on to early gains and closed in the red for the seventh straight session on Thursday, with participants remaining in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the RBI's interest rate decision. Unabated selling by foreign funds added to the pressure, though a modest recovery in the rupee cushioned the fall, traders said. After rallying in early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex came under selling pressure in the afternoon session and closed 188.32 points or 0.33 per cent lower at 56,409.96.
'Indices will remain range bound in 2022 as earnings catch up with the current multiples.'
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on benchmark rate mainly on account of uncertainty over the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the fears of firming inflation may also refrain the MPC from tinkering with the interest rate in its bi-monthly monetary policy outcome to be announced on Friday. The RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged at the last MPC meeting held in April.
"In view of the festival season and extending the benefits to customers across all segments, we have reduced our MCLR by 10 bps across all tenures," the bank said in a statement.
Financial markets are under stress and require steps by the central bank for market stability and revival of economic growth, he said while announcing the decisions taken by the Monetary Policy Committee in Mumbai.
Avoid discontinuing your SIPs. Persist for at least 7-10 years.
Amid prolonged uncertainty, continued policy support will be crucial for sustained economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said at the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. "In this period of prolonged uncertainty, it would be wise to remain agile and respond in a gradual, calibrated and well telegraphed manner to the emerging challenges," opined Das, according to the minutes of the MPC meeting released by the Reserve Bank on Thursday. Observing that economic recovery from the pandemic remains incomplete and uneven, he said, "continued support from various policies remains crucial for a sustained recovery." The governor said the renewed surge in international crude oil prices, however, requires close monitoring.
The new rates, effective Wednesday, is the third reduction by SBI in this financial year having cut the rates by 5 bps each in April and May, while its home loan rates has come down by 20 bps during this period.
'India has formed tremendous resilience and still a strong growth.'
Retail inflation softened to 6.71 per cent in July due to moderation in food prices but remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month. With retail inflation continuing to remain high despite a fall in prices of vegetables and edible oils, among other commodities in July, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might go for another rate hike in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June and 5.59 per cent in July 2021. It was above 7 per cent from April to June this fiscal.
The fourth consecutive rate cut is expected to lower equated monthly instalments (EMIs) for home and auto buyers, and borrowing cost for corporate.
The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
These are the highlights of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's statement and resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC):
Investors not comfortable investing directly may take the mutual fund route, where they get exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds.
Commemorating 75 years of India's independence, SBI has launched a 75-day Utsav Deposit Scheme, offering 6.10 per cent for fixed deposits. Senior citizens will get an additional 0.50 per cent and the offer is on until October 30, SBI said.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
Liquidity in the banking system has slipped into a deficit for the first time in three weeks, prompting banks to borrow the largest quantum of funds from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in around a month and a half. The key catalyst for the sudden tightening in liquidity was due to outflows on account of advance tax payments, which occur towards the end of a quarter. Analysts also cited other factors such as a currency leakage and possible interventions by the RBI in the foreign exchange market, which contributed to the tighter liquidity conditions.
Reversal in the declining economic growth trajectory is clearly the need of the hour and all steps should be taken to bring about this change.
The balance sheet of the Reserve Bank plays a critical role in the functioning of the country's economy.
India's demand for petroleum products like petrol and diesel will grow by 7.73 per cent in 2022, the fastest pace in the world, an OPEC report said. India's demand for oil products is projected to rise from 4.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 5.14 million bpd in 2022, OPEC said in its monthly oil report. The growth in demand is the fastest in the world ahead of 1.23 per cent of China, 3.39 per cent of the US and 4.62 per cent of Europe.
Pranjal Kamra, CEO, Finology Ventures, lists seven efficient ways to cope with the rise in EMIs even as you balance your monthly budgets.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) board on Wednesday allowed foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to trade in exchange-traded commodity derivatives. The move, it said, "will enhance liquidity and market depth, as well as promote efficient price discovery." Overseas investors will only be allowed to deal in non-agricultural commodity derivatives and only cash-settled contracts.
All public sector banks have moved to such a regime voluntarily, while private banks are yet to. The state-run banks have introduced repo-linked products for floating-rate home and auto loans, but the RBI said loans to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) should also be linked to an external benchmark.
The difference between what the banks play in the US and India is not that of soccer and football but rugby and football. SVB also has a unique character. But when risks are mispriced, the fallout could be very similar, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
Last month, RBI slashed cash reserve ratio -- the percentage of deposits that banks have to keep with the RBI -- from 5.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. With this, the central bank had infused Rs 48,000 crore (Rs 480 billion) into the economy.
Axis Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging over 13 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Maruti, TCS, Kotak Bank and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, Nestle India, HUL, Tech Mahindra and Sun Pharma ended in the red. NSE Nifty zoomed 273.95 points, or 3.03 per cent, to finish at 9,266.75.
India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Friday. Varma further said out of the four engines of growth for the economy, exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, but other engines need to pick up the baton now. " I like to think in terms of the four engines of growth for the economy: exports, government spending, capital investment and private consumption. "...while exports cannot be the main driver of growth because of the global slowdown, government spending is necessarily limited by fiscal constraints," he told PTI.
The government has no plan to print currency notes to tide over the current economic crisis triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman informed Parliament on Monday. To a question on whether there is any plan to print currency to tide over the crisis, the finance minister said, "No Sir". Many economists and experts have suggested to the government to print more currency notes to tide over the difficult economic situation with a view to support the economy ravaged by the spread of COVID-19, and protect jobs.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
Banks looking to raise capital via bond sales to fund decade-high credit growth were compelled to put some of these debt issuances on hold amid a sharp rise in yields since late September, sources told Business Standard. A major private lender, Axis Bank, has not yet followed through with a planned issuance of infrastructure bonds worth around Rs 3,000 crore. This is because volatility in the bond market in late September led to investors seeking higher yields, sources said.
